LIFT_PROTOCOL_03 // PROTOCOL_SPEC
Deal Size Impact Analysis
Quantify whether paid media increases ACV—not just win probability—by comparing influenced deals vs. matched control outcomes.
Wins Without ACV Growth Can Be a Trap
Some programs increase win-rate but inadvertently pull in smaller, less profitable deals. Deal size impact analysis ensures media improves revenue quality, not just quantity. It distinguishes between 'media that finds easy wins' and 'media that builds enterprise consensus.'
CRITICAL FAILURE MODES
- ✕ Win-rate improves globally but average deal size (ACV) drops by 10%+
- ✕ Media spend pulls forward low-value self-serve deals that would have closed anyway
- ✕ Revenue leaders question whether marketing is creating real enterprise value
Deal Size Modeling Logic
ACV INPUTS
Closed-won deals (Exposed vs. Control)
ACV / ARR fields from CRM
Segment attributes (Tier, Vertical, ICP Fit)
Sales cycle + discount depth metrics
→
ACV OUTPUT
Incremental Deal Size Delta
Logic: Median ACV (Exposed) − Median ACV (Control) → Deal Size Lift
PLATFORM ON (CRM + Finance Metrics)
We connect cohort flags directly to closed-won outcomes in your BI layer to compute ACV deltas with distribution analysis across all tiers.
Result: +9% Median ACV lift in Tier 1 accounts (Exposed cohort)
PLATFORM OFF (ACV Lift Workbook)
We compute deal size deltas using CRM exports and cohort labels to create a quarterly revenue quality report.
Output: ACV Distribution Shift Chart (P50 / P75 / P90 comparison)
Artifacts You Receive
- ✓Deal Size Lift Report (P50/P75/P90 Analysis)
- ✓Segmented ACV Delta Tables
- ✓Discount-to-Media Correlation Insights
- ✓Revenue Quality Executive Summary
Implementation Steps
WK 1
Define primary deal size metrics and ensure clean data synchronization of ACV/ARR fields.
WK 2
Compare ACV distributions across exposed vs. control cohorts, filtered by segment.
WK 3
Publish ACV lift insights and integrate findings into future budget allocation decisions.